Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Obama is the more likely of the two to win. Similarly, perceptions of Obama's electability by age don't exactly line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups. Gallup Poll Daily tracking spanning June shows adults aged 18 to 34 to be his strongest support group, giving him a point lead over McCain, compared with a virtual tie between Obama and McCain among those aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for McCain among those 55 and older.
While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. By contrast, the majority of Americans 55 and older say Obama will win. Nevertheless, both genders are more likely to believe Obama rather than McCain will win the election.
They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in Obama's favor, even among older generations of Americans and Southerners who are more likely to back McCain for the presidency.
Results are based on telephone interviews with national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June , Gallup Poll Daily tracking results on the Obama-McCain race are based on telephone interviews with 2, registered voters interviewed June and June 12, Just thought you might like to know: I live in Virginia and my canvassing has shown something that might be called the opposite of the Bradley effect.
There are voters here, particularly older ones, who plan to secretly vote for Obama…. That means he could lose Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and still win. I drove around Chapel Hill this morning between 8 and 9 am, and there were cheering Obama volunteers standing out in the steady rain, waving signs celebrating and doing a little GOTV dance at at least six major intersections.
I drove by three polling places and they appeared busy but not overflowing—I did not see any lines snaking out into the rain. I assume that you mean all the Kerry states minus PA. The wait was quite reasonable, but the really interesting thing is that there was no Republican presence whatsoever at my polling place.
The Democrats were out in force. Maybe there really is something to do this supposed enthusiasm gap. If I may, let me try to articulate my question in a more sophisticated manner — can you expand on how the high rates of early voting and African-American turn-out affects the likely voter models?
Is this a reasonable interpretation of Jerseyvotes? Thus, if I stay up late enough to hear CO results, I should have a good idea of who won.
For example, some of them ask if people have voted early, then make a note of it. Since they concern themselves with turnout, I do not believe that we, as non-pollsters, are better at guessing African-American turnout than they are. After all, they have the data and we just comment. The one exception is the cell-phone-only population. This population is underrepresented, and the Pew Center has demonstrated quantitatively that it can affect poll results.
For this reason, I believe it is justifiable to apply this correction. Of course, there is the possibility of other systematic errors in the data. More later. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. South African, permanent resident. My wife, American, was up at 5am and ready to vote for O. Great site. Was indispensable when explaining the election to my friends in Europe and Africa. Well done. Go vote! This week, James Surowiecki at the New Yorker has a nice column on traders paying far too attention to information on what other traders are doing. Could many of them benefit from training in statistically-based decision-making?
I suspect. Perhaps benefit from learning a bit of practical mathematical modeling Excel spreadsheets are hugely useful? Right now, some of them must feel like salt-water lemmings. Surfing, anybody? A personal prediction of the polling bias…. Well, neither can I. The daily tracking polls have been truly weird in just the last few days — maybe likely voter models being confounded by who has already voted?
This is an unprecedented election, and something is afoot. Thanks for all your analysis, Sam. Sam — thank you for your work on this site.
Instead of reworking their initial samples to reach these hard-to-contact people, pollsters typically added new households to the sample, skewing the results toward the opinions of those who were easy to reach on the phone, and who typically supported Obama. Traugott noted that the analysis also revealed wide variation in the primary question respondents are asked?
In New Hampshire, there were 11 different question wordings used in the Democratic primary, and 10 different wordings used in the Republic primary. ISR researchers also collaborate with social scientists in more than 60 nations on the World Values Surveys and other social science research projections.
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